More Injuries: Niemann Fractures Leg, Jennings Lands on DL
The baseball gods must be upset with the Rays this year, as they haven’t been able to avoid injuries at any point so far this season. The Rays have had a total of nine players on the Disabled List this season, including B.J. Upton, Kyle Farnsworth (60-day DL), Sam Fuld (60-day DL), Robinson Chirinos (60-day DL), Jose Lobaton, Evan Longoria, Brandon Allen, Desmond Jennings, and Jeff Niemann. Besides Upton and Chirinos (rehab assignment), all of them are currently on the DL.
After lingering as day-to-day for over a week with a sprained left knee, Jennings was finally placed on the 15-day DL. Not only are the Rays without their biggest offensive producer Evan Longoria, but now they’ll have to manage without their leadoff hitter for some time. With Jennings out the offense—and the defense—takes another huge blow. He’s probably the biggest part of the Rays’ running game, as well as a plus defender in the outfield which can’t be replaced by the likes of Brandon Guyer and Stephen Vogt.
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The Rays were hit with yet another big injury last night, as Jeff Niemann—the fifth man in the starting rotation—broke his leg on a hard comebacker against the Blue Jays. X-rays revealed a small fracture above Niemann’s right ankle, which will sideline him for a minimum of 4-6 weeks.
The injury could not come at a much worse time for Niemann and the Rays, as the big right-hander seemed to be on the way up after his best start of the season in Yankee Stadium last Wednesday, where he silenced the New York bats with seven sharp innings of one-run ball. Although he’s in the number five spot in the rotation, Niemann has been a key piece to the Rays’ pitching staff this year. He’s probably been the most consistent starter for the Rays this season, as he hasn’t had a start with more than three earned runs thus far (3.38 ERA on the season). With Matt Moore having some early season struggles in the No. 4 hole, Niemann has been the core of the back end of the rotation, giving his team a chance to win in every single game he pitched this year.
Niemann is no stranger to injuries, however, as they’ve already stifled his chance of becoming a star multiple times in his career. In 2010, it appeared as he was headed towards a breakout season, posting a 2.77 ERA with a 7-2 record through 117 innings pitched in the first half. After getting hurt in August, it all went down hill for him from there as he imploded in a horrific end to the season. In early May of last year, Niemann was placed on the DL with back problems, and it was likely was the only thing that got in the way of a solid year for him. Before the injury, when his back was probably bothering him, Niemann went 1-4 with an ERA of about 6.38. After returning from the injury, he went 10-3 with a 3.94 ERA.
Now the question is who will replace Niemann for the time being. Alex Cobb—who’s already filled in for a Jeff Niemann injury in the past—is definitely a possibility. Cobb gave the Rays a huge boost last year while Niemann was out last year, going 3-2 with a 3.42 ERA in nine starts (his only MLB experience). After eight starts with Triple-A Durham this season, Cobb is 1-4 with a 4.14 ERA.
Top prospect Chris Archer is also in the conversation. Although he seems to be heating up now, he’s had a rather slow start to the season posting a 4.71 after eight starts with Durham. Wade Davis—who was edged out of a starting role by Niemann—is another possibility to take his place. He’s done well out of the ‘pen so far this season, posting a 2.04 ERA through 17.2 innings pitched. With more experience in the rotation than both Cobb and Archer, he could be the front-runner for the gig, but then again the Rays may want to keep him in the bullpen where he’s had success.
Update on Rays’ Top 5 Prospects
After a little over a month of baseball, the MLB—and MiLB season—is now in full swing. Back in February, I did an evaluation on the Rays’ top prospects on The Rays Rant, and I think it’s about time we check-in how they’re progressing thus far. As you can see from the list, Matt Moore is still technically considered a prospect. However, he’s already pitched nearly 50 innings as a Major Leaguer, so I decided not to include him in this article. Here’s the current status of the Rays’ top five minor league prospects:
Hak-Ju Lee
It’s been a slow start to the season for 21-year-old shortstop Hak-Ju Lee, who earned a full-season promotion to Double-A Montgomery after a breakout 2011 season. He’s batting .229/.293/.314 as the Biscuits’ leadoff hitter, with 12 RBI and nine stolen bases (caught three times). He hasn’t gone yard yet, but he does have 10 extra basehits including three triples. Lee is not only struggling with the bat, as he hasn’t been sharp defensively either. He hasn’t been smooth at short so far this season, committing seven errors already (.955 fielding percentage). It’s clear that the talented youngster has not yet adjusted to the Double-A level, and seems to still be in the process of getting used to the speed of the game. Hopefully it’s nothing more than a slow start for Lee, as the Rays could really use a shortstop like him as soon as possible on the roster.
Chris Archer
The Rays’ top right-handed pitching prospect is probably Chris Archer, who continues to provide the Rays with even more pitching depth down at the farm. After a poor April start to the year, it appears as if Archer is now on the right track. Archer currently owns a record of 3-4 with a 4.71 ERA this season with Triple-A Durham, but he’s had a great start to the month of May. In his three starts this month, Archer has gone 2-0 with an ERA of 2.00, going six innings deep in all three outings. He outdueled Yankees’ top prospect Manny Banuelos on Sunday, shining in the Bulls’ matinee matchup with the Yankees (Scranton/WB) throwing nine strikeouts without allowing an earned run. We know he has good swing-and-miss stuff, but the main concern with Archer is his command. The 23-year-old simply walks too many batters; he’s walked 28 already this season (averaging 3.5 base on balls per start). This is something Archer clearly needs to improve on if he hopes earning a promotion to the big leagues at any point this season.
Tim Beckham
After a good 2011 season, the former first-overall draft pick has disappointed the Rays once again in 2012. After just 13 games with Triple-A Durham, where he hit .204/.290/.278 four RBI, the 22-year-old shortstop was issued a 50-game suspension from MiLB for his second violation of the league’s drug policy (marijuana). This could not come at a much worse time for Beckham and the Rays, as 2012 was supposed to be a crucial year in his development as he continues to near is MLB debut. The Rays and their fans hope that Beckham won’t become the next Josh Hamilton.
Mikie Mahtook
Drafted in the first round of last year’s draft, Mahtook has had a solid start in his first year of full-season ball. He’s put up a .278/.340/.317 line with 13 RBI and nine stolen bases with Class A+ Charlotte in the Florida State League. The only thing that hasn’t come around yet this season is the power, as Mahtook remains homer-less with four extra base-hits after the first 34 games (126 at-bats). He definitely has some pop in his bat, and hopefully it’s only a matter of time before the power arrives.
Taylor Guerrieri
Also drafted by the Rays in the first round last summer, Guerrieri gives Tampa’s organization another exciting young arm. The 19-year-old is starting the year in extended spring training, and is yet to throw his first pitch as a professional. He’s expected to soon start the season in the Rookie League, with the Princeton Rays. A complete scouting report on the hard-throwing right-hander can be found here.
Rays Farmhands Potentially Headed Towards a Breakout Season
It’s always fun to watch who will be the next to have a breakout season in the Rays’ farm system. In an organization teeming with young talent, it’s only a matter of time before someone will transform from an unknown minor leaguer into a well-known top prospect. Last year, we saw both Matt Moore and Hak-Ju Lee enjoy breakout seasons, which changed the future outlook of the club in a way. So, who down at the farm could have a breakout season this year? It’s obviously hard to predict after just a month of baseball, but it’s safe to say there are at least six good legitimate candidates already.
Ryan Brett
Consistency is the name of the game for 20-year-old Ryan Brett, who’s emerging as one of the organization’s top hitting prospects. The switch-hitting second baseman is an outstanding contact hitter, and also has the ability to make solid contact with the ball. He hit at least .300 in his previous two seasons in the Rookie League, and he’s started off the 2012 in right direction. In his first year of full-season ball (Class A Bowling Green), Brett has posted a .296/.342/.417 line with nine RBI and five stolen bases. At five-foot-nine and 180 pounds, he doesn’t generate much power, but he’s shown a bit a pop thus far with a pair of homers in the first month of the season. As I said before, Brett’s consistent and likely won’t fall into any major slumps this year. If he keeps up the pace he’s at now, he’s bound for a breakout year.
Tyler Goeddel
It’s been one hot—and surprising—start for third baseman Tyler Goeddel, who came into the season as somewhat of an overlooked draftee. Picked in the first round of last year’s draft, Goeddel’s making his pro debut with Single-A Bowling Green. Not only is he starting his professional baseball career in full-season ball at the age of 19, but he’s also thriving in it. Although he’s cooled off as of late, Goeddel’s still hitting .294/.341/.471 with 13 RBI and three homers in 85 at-bats. He also has good speed, stealing five bases (caught once) so far this season. Power has really been the main surprise this year for Goeddel. He is six-foot-four, but he weighs only 180 pounds. Once he manages to buff up a little, he could turn into a serious hitting prospect for the Rays.
Kyeong Kang
Power is one thing the Rays’ farm system is lacking, but it clearly can be found in outfielder Kyeong Kang. The 24-year-old hitting .279/.393/.706 with 19 RBI and an impressive home-run total of eight (already only three less than last year’s amount) through 24 games with Double-A Montgomery. Kang is really starting to heat up now, and I think this is the year that his big-time longball ability will finally lead him to a breakout season. Hopefully, his nice start will earn him a promotion to Triple-A Durham sometime soon.
Ryan Carpenter
Drafted in the seventh round of last year’s draft, southpaw Ryan Carpenter hasn’t put up any bad number yet in the pros. After posting a 0.76 ERA in 23.2 innings pitched (four starts) last season with short-season Hudson Valley, Carpenter has picked up where he left off with Class A Bowling Green this year. Carpenter is 4-1 with a 2.57 ERA and 27 strikeouts through six starts (seven appearances) thus far. If one things for sure, promotions will come calling soon if Carpenter can keep up the great start.
Drew Vettleson
Drafted in the first round of 2010′s draft (42nd overall), outfielder Drew Vettleson is now making his full-season debut with Bowling Green after spending 61 games with Rookie League Princeton last season. He’s hitting .267/.336/.371 so far this season with 11 RBI, two homers and five stolen bases. Vettleson’s a good all-around ballplayer, with the ability to be a balanced hitter with a pretty good game on the base paths and on the field. He doesn’t have big-time power in his left-handed bat, but he definitely can knock in runs and hit for extra bases. It hasn’t been a good last couple of weeks for Vettleson, but there’s plenty of reasons to believe he’ll make big progress in the minors this year.
Josh Sale
Fellow left-handed slugger Josh Sale was Vettleson’s draft mate in 2010, as well as teammate at Rookie League Princeton last year. He made a bad first impression with some disappointing numbers there, but he looks to be headed in the right direction for the 2012 season. The 20-year-old outfielder made his season debut with Bowling Green on Saturday, joining them after starting the year in extended spring training. In two games (six plate appearances), he has one hit through six at-bats. The Rays must of saw good things out of Sale in extended spring training these past months, as they seemed confident putting Sale in full-season ball to start his season.
Tracking Progress of Rays’ Top 10 Draft Picks From Last Year
The 2012 MLB Draft is right around the corner, which means the Rays have another chance to shine in something that they’ve had success in during the past years. The Rays have six active Major Leaguers (four with the Rays) currently playing in the big leagues that were picked in the first round, three of them now superstars. In the 2011 Draft, the Rays had 10 first-round picks, seven of them compensatory (or “sandwich”) picks. It’s obviously too early to judge the Rays ‘ draft choices at this point, but nearly a year after the the draft it’s about time to see how these prospects are progressing through the Rays’ farm system. Let’s take a look at where the Rays’ top 10 draft picks from 2011 are found today.
Taylor Guerrieri; 1st (24)
Picking 19-year-old right-hander Taylor Guerrieri as their first pick in the draft, the Rays added yet another talented arm to their stack of starting pitching to their minor league system. Despite any professional baseball experience yet, Guerrieri is considered a top prospect coming into the 2012 season. He’s expected to join the Princeton Rays (Rookie League)—which season starts in mid-June—at some point late this year. At a very young age and playing in an organization with a stacked pitching rotation, Guerrieri’s clearly long ways from any big league push at the moment. However, he’ll surely be one to watch this year at short-season ball. Here’s a full scouting report of Guerrieri that I wrote at The Rays Rant last month.
Mikie Mahtook; 1st (31)
As expected, 22-year-old Mikie Mahtook has had a rather smooth transition into the pros. He shined in Arizona Fall League ball last year, hitting .338/.410/.544 with three homers and 14 RBI through 18 games in his first taste of the pros. Mahtook is playing in his first full professional season this year at Class A+ Charlotte, after a very successful career at LSU. The toolsy outfielder has been considered one of the Rays’ top prospects right from the draft. Mahtook is hitting .284/.360/.338 with the Charlotte Stonecrabs through 21 games and 74 at-bats. He’s also knocked in 10 runs and stole three bases. The power has not shown yet, but it’s likely only a matter of time before it does. If Mahtook progresses well through the minors this year and next year, he might be able to make his MLB debut as early as 2013. Here’s my scouting report on him back from February.
Jake Hager; 1st (32)
Picked late in the first round right after Mahtook, the Rays found themselves a potential future shortstop in Jake Hager. At just just 18 years of age last season, Hager joined Rookie League Princeton not long after the draft. He hit .269/.305/.399 with 17 RBI, four homers, five stolen bases (out of 12 opportunities) and eight fielding errors through 47 games. The sloppy fielding and baserunning is something normal for 18-year-old’s making their pro debut, and shouldn’t concern the Rays too much at this point. Hager’s had a slow start to the 2012 season with Class A Bowling Green; the lowest level full-season club in the Rays’ organization. Through his first 18 games, he’s currently hitting .209 with seven RBI and four fielding errors. Hager clearly has a lot of developing to do in the minors, but fortunately he has plenty of time. Here’s my full scouting report on Hager from earlier this month.
Brandon Martin; 1st (38)
The Rays chose another shortstop in the draft for their first of seven compensatory picks. Like Hager, Martin is a athletic and undersized shortstop with pretty good tools across the board. He played 19 games for the Gulf Coast League Rays last year (Rookie League), batting .255 with five stolen bases and three RBI. Martin’s 2012 season hasn’t started yet, as he’s in extended spring training to start the year. The 18-year-old plans to play in the rookie level later this season.
Tyler Goeddel; 1st (41)
Third baseman Tyler Goeddel is by far the biggest pleasant surprise this season in the lower levels of the Rays’ farm system. In his first season as a pro, the 19-year-old is batting .318/.375/.515 with 11 RBI and three homers through 19 games with Single-A Bowling Green. Although it seems he’s starting to cool off after jumping out to a red hot start, 2012 could a breakout year for Goeddel, who came into the year without much recognition at all. Goeddel is not considered one of the Rays’ top prospects now, but that will likely change once the season ends.
Jeff Ames; 1st (42)
Right-hander Jeff Ames had a rough first go-around in the minors last year, posting a 7.12 ERA through 30.1 innings pitched with Rookie League Princeton. The high strikeout rates he posted show that he still has pretty good potential, but he’s definitely looking to improve the ugly numbers coming into the 2012 season. Along with a handful of the Rays’ draftees, Ames is starting the season in extended spring training. Here’s my complete scouting report on Ames.
Blake Snell; 1st (52)
Ranked one of the Rays’ top prospects right out of the draft, most scouts believe that 19-year-old southpaw Blake Snell has a high ceiling of potential. Snell had a strong professional debut last summer, posting a 3.08 ERA with 26 strikeouts for the Gulf Coast League Rays through 26.1 innings. He also is starting his 2012 season in extended spring training. Here’s my full scouting report on Snell.
Kes Carter; 1st (56)
The Rays’ picked up their first left-handed bat of the draft when they chose Kes Carter. The 22-year-old outfielder made his pro debut last season with Low-A Hudson Valley (short-season New York-Penn League), going .231 with an RBI during his brief 13-at bat (three-game) stint. Promoted up to full-season Bowling Green, 2012 is Carter’s real start to his career. Before landing on the DL earlier this month, Carter was batting .333 with three RBI and two stolen bases through seven games played. Unfortunately, his hamstring injury has sidelined him for over two weeks now.
Grayson Garvin; 1st (59)
The Rays picked a tall left-handed pitcher in Grayson Garvin for the 59th overall pick in the draft. The 22-year-old is making his minor league debut with Class A+ Charlotte this season, and has not had a strong start to the year. Garvin is currently sporting an 0-2 record with a 4.50 ERA and 15 strikeouts through 22 innings pitched in the Stonecrabs’ rotation. Being an overlooked prospect, 2012 is Garvin’s chance to make a name for himself in the Rays’ organization.
James Harris; 1st (60)
The Rays picked outfielder James Harris as their final compensation pick of the draft, as well as their final pick of the first round. A phenomenal athlete, Harris made his pro debut in the Gulf Coast League last summer at just 17 years old (now 18). He batted a low .165/.257/.203 with eight RBI and 13 stolen bases during his 45-game Rookie League stint. The young speedster is starting the 2012 season in extended spring training.
Hideki Matsui to Sign Minor League Deal; Analyzing the Rays’ Latest Move
The Rays are apparently on the verge of adding to their offensive depth with another veteran bat. Jack Curry of YES Network reported that the Rays are expected to sign former star slugger and World Series MVP Hideki Matsui to a minor league contract.
Matsui, who played his first season without the New York Yankees in 2011, hit .251/.321/.375 with 12 home runs and 72 RBI for Oakland through 141 games played. Matsui, who turns 38 this June, is obviously out of his prime and his numbers are clearly not where they used to be. However, he did finish the season strong last year hitting .295/.353/.425 in the second half.
Bringing Matsui aboard was definitely a smart move for the Rays, who could use another quality bat on the roster. He’s proven to be a very productive hitter throughout his nine solid years in the big leagues, posting a career line of .285/.363/.467 with a total of 173 homers. His 162-game average of 101 RBI and 23 HR per year is what’s most impressive amongst his overall numbers.
Once Matsui will join the Rays, the question is how he will fit on the roster. Designated Hitter is his primary position now, but he can also play left field. When Matsui gets called up (which will most likely send the newly-acquired Brandon Allen to the minors), there obviously won’t be a immediate starting position for him. The Rays have a solid DH in Luke Scott–who’s also a left-handed batter—and have outfield with no room for him.
What the Rays can do with Matsui though, is platoon, something they’ve fell in love with since Joe Maddon has taken over. The Rays have not yet found an effective hitter to platoon the left-handed bats of Matt Joyce and Luke Scott yet this season—who have never been successful off left-handed pitching—but they may of just found their guy in Hideki Matsui. Although Matsui is also a lefty, he has been much more effective off left-handed pitching throughout his career. His ability to hit decently off lefties is a probably a big reason why the Rays signed him and not Johnny Damon.
His average against both righties and lefties in his career are exactly the same at .285; although he produces a lot more runs against right-handers. Still, it’s probably a better option than Joyce (.199/.274/.329 career against LHP) and Scott (.236/.313/.465 career against LHP). That’s why we can expect to see Matsui get a significant amount of playing time against left-handed pitching this season, as he is probably a better option than the Rays’ DH and corner outfielder (Joyce), who both man positions that he can play. If the Rays decide not to start either Joyce or Scott due to the pitching matchup one day, Matsui and Jeff Keppinger could possibly be the duo to replace them.
No matter how many lefties face the Rays this season, Matsui is probably going to see a pretty good amount of pinch hit appearances. Fortunately, he has had success as a pinch hitter in the past, posting a career .300 average in 50 plate appearances.
Another encouraging split I found interesting from Matsui’s stats is how well he’s hit at Tropicana Field over the years. He’s a career .297/.385/.505 hitter at the Trop, with 43 RBI and 10 homers. In a more hitter-friendly park that Matsui seems to thrive in, I wouldn’t be surprised to see his numbers rise from last year’s.
Another reason why this move makes a lot of sense is Matsui’s ability to be consistent with runners in scoring position. Matsui is a career .298/.382/.477 hitter with the runners in scoring position, something that the Rays should be excited about. Tampa’s biggest weakness is hitting with men in scoring position, finishing third-worst in baseball last year with a .224 RISP. If Matsui can come through for the Rays in big situations like he’s done in the past, their offense could become more potent than ever.
His ability to get runners in is not the only reason why Matsui is known as a clutch hitter. Year after year, he’s been able to turn it on late in the season and into the postseason. He’s a lifetime .289/.378/.454 hitter in September/October (regular season). His postseason stats have been even more impressive, posting a career line of .312/.391/.541 with 39 RBI and 10 HR in 56 games. In the Fall Classic, the “Godzilla” unleashed in his two World Series. He’s compiled a .389/.463/.750 line with 12 RBI and four HR.
With the likelihood of the Rays making their third straight postseason appearance in 2012, Matsui could be a crucial part to their success in October. A clutch hitter like Matsui is a perfect addition to this ballclub, which has lacked some clutch hits in the last couple of years.
The biggest reason why Andrew Friedman went out and made this move may be the fact that Matsui is a good Luke Scott insurance policy. Although a major Scott injury would hurt the team, it would not as big as a blow as it would if Brandon Allen were to replace him. Scott has struggled with injury issues in the past, and hasn’t played over 135 games in a season since 2008 when he played 148 games (the only time he played over 135 games in his career). He was hurt most of the season last year with a shoulder injury, and has already missed a few games this year with a hamstring strain. Turning 34 this June, his chances of a an injury-free season are not getting better.
With the addition of Matsui, the Rays are given offensive security probably better than they’ve ever had. It’s clear that this is another very intelligent move by the Rays front office, and can only make them an even better team.
Is Desmond Jennings Still One Year Away From Being a Star?
Desmond Jennings hasn’t played his first full season in the big leagues yet, but it doesn’t seem like he’s too far away from becoming a star. With less than a hundred big league games under his belt so far in his brief career, it’s become clear that the 25-year-old has a bright future ahead of him.
Jennings has all the tools for a successful career, but the million dollar question is when will his talents transform him into a star. He’s a potential five-tool outfielder with excellent speed, great range, some power, terrific baserunning skills, and the ability to hit for average and get on base.
Jennings burst onto the scene as a late-season call-up for the Rays last year, and immediately made an impact putting up some impressive numbers in his rookie season. In 63 games, he batted .259/.356/.449 with 25 RBI, 10 HR and 20 stolen bases.
After 16 games, it looks like Jennings is on the right track to start his 2012 season, batting .262./.319/.385 with 2 HR, 7 RBI and 3 stolen bases. Although his on-base percentage is not as high as it was last year, or probably where he’d like it to be this season, Jennings has gave the Rays the consistent leadoff guy they need thus far. It’s obviously to early to judge anything, but he definitely hasn’t been a disappointment.
Defense is another area of his game that helps show he’s gradually turning into a star in Tampa Bay. Jennings has done an outstanding job in left field ever since he’s been called up to the majors, making highlight reel catches on balls that many outfielders can’t get to. He’s also filled in a bit in center, a position that he has a legitimate future in and would make him an even more valuable player to his team.
In just his second season, there’s only one thing standing in between him and stardom. That single weakness has been contact hitting. Jennings posted a strikeout percentage of 20.6 last year, and has not yet improved this season with a percentage of 20.8. Both ratios are considered below league average, especially for leadoff hitters.
High strikeout totals are normal for young players—even young stars—in their first couple of years, which is why it shouldn’t be too much of a concern for the Rays. With ridiculously good speed and a nice line-drive stoke, good things usually happen when Jennings makes contact with the baseball. Once Jennings starts to cut down on the strikeouts, the other parts of his game will excel more than ever before.
Better contact hitting will not only effect Jennings’ overall numbers, but it can also make a huge difference in the Rays’ offense. Less strikeouts would lead to a higher OBP, which would lead to more stolen bases, which would would lead to more runners in scoring position, which would ultimately lead to more runs scored. Jennings will improve as a player and likely breakout as a star when his strikeout ratios decrease.
Jennings’ scary close similarities between former Rays superstar left fielder Carl Crawford can give us an idea of when Jennings could really start to shine at the big league level.
Both Crawford and Jennings are speedy leadoff-hitting left fielders who came into the league with somewhat similar expectations, making this a pretty good comparison, although Crawford started his career at a younger age. Amazingly, they both played 63 games in their rookie seasons and batted exactly .259. Although Crawford had 10 more RBI in his strong rookie year, Jennings probably had the better season with 11 more stolen bases, eight more homers and a much higher OBP.
Crawford started to emerge as a star in his sophomore year and first full season, stealing a league-high 55 stolen bases while batting a solid .281. Jennings is currently in his sophomore year and first full season, which is why we can expect to see him begin to rise as a young star by the end of this year.
I don’t expect Jennings to turn into one of the top leadoff men in the league as quick as Crawford did, but I would be a bit surprised if he doesn’t reach his All-Star caliber potential within the next year or so. Just like Crawford, Jennings’ great speed will be what separates him from the many talented outfielders in the American League. In addition to that, I believe his natural power could make him really something special, as well as a serious 20-40 threat as early as this year.
A little over a month ago on The Rays Rant, I wrote a full-year stat projection article on Desmond Jennings, predicting all of his major statistics for the 2012 season. Click here to check it out if you haven’t seen it yet.
Why the Rays’ Offense Will Be Good Enough to Win the AL East
It will be another hard-fought battle for the AL East in 2012, and the Rays will likely be in the hunt to win it all season long. Tampa’s great starting pitching is definitely good enough to win the division, but the question is whether they will hit good enough.
Offensive production was the only thing that stood in the way of an AL East title and postseason success last year. With all the tough competition in the American League, it’s clear the Rays are going to have to hit better than they did in 2011 in order to be serious title contenders.
There are some good reasons to believe that the Rays’ offense will be better in 2012. For starters, offseason acquisitions have already made an impact in the lineup, and they should make the Rays a better team overall this season. The Rays made smart moves by signing Carlos Pena to play first base and Luke Scott to be their DH, replacing Casey Kotchman and Johnny Damon from 2011.
It’s early, but it looks like the replacement is paying off and the newer combo will produce more runs for the Rays this year. Both Scott and Pena have start the season off on a tear in the meat of the lineup. Scott is hitting .400/.438/.933 with eight RBI and two home runs. Pena has been the Rays’ best hitter after the first nine games, batting .353/.450/.735 with 11 RBI and three long balls.
As expected, Evan Longoria is also hitting very well, starting his 2012 season with a .333/.436/.545 line along with five RBI and a homer. I think Longoria will have his best season yet this year, which is another reason why the Rays will score enough runs to be at the top of their division.
The Rays have a very strong trio of big boppers in Longoria, Pena and Scott, who will likely lead the team offensively. If those three stay healthy and hit to their potential the Rays will have a great shot at winning the AL East.
Jeff Keppinger and Jose Molina are two more additions that could bolster the offense. Keppinger is outstanding contact hitter who should help lower the Rays’ high strikeout ratios, as well as contribute to the bottom of the order. Keppinger’s already been somewhat of a pleasant surprise this season, coming through with some clutch hits. Molina is no All Star either, but he probably is a better offensive option than both Kelly Shoppach and John Jaso—who were the Rays’ two main backstops last year.
Matt Joyce, Ben Zobrist and B.J. Upton are three more bats that will be key to the Rays’ lineup this season, just like they’ve been in the past. Neither Joyce are Zobrist have started to hit well yet, and Upton has been on the DL since the season began. Once Joyce and Zobrist start to get things going at the plate and Upton returns to the lineup, the Rays will instantly become a more threatening team to their AL East opponents.
The three combined for 247 RBI and 62 homers last season, finishing second, third and fourth in team leaders for both categories (behind Evan Longoria who lead in both). Ben Zobrist hit 20 homers with an impressive 91 RBI, while Joyce was selected to the All Star Game and finished the season with 75 RBI, 19 homers and a .277 average. Upton produced his share of runs as well, collecting 81 RBI with 23 home runs while stealing 36 stolen bases.
The Rays should finally have a consistent leadoff man in the lineup with the full-season addition of Desmond Jennings this year. Jennings—a late-season call-up in 2011—stole 20 bases with 25 RBI and 10 homers in his 63-game rookie season. Having an everyday leadoff guy like Jennings is definitely a big help to the lineup that the Rays didn’t really have last year.
The running game has been a big part of the Rays’ offense in past years, and Jennings huge threat on the base pads provides a big boost with Carl Crawford no longer with the team. Like Crawford, he’s a great base-stealer with excellent speed.
The Rays’ running game hasn’t got off to a good start, however, which is a big reason why the Rays are only 21st in the Majors right now in runs scored. It’s really unfair to judge Tampa’s offense at this point in the season, though, as two of the team’s three main base-stealers are out with injury. Both Upton —who lead the team in stolen bases last year— and Sam Fuld (20 stolen bases in 2011) are on the DL.
Injuries have not only hurt the running game, but they have hurt the offense overall. As I said before, Upton was one of the main run-producers last season, and not having him in the lineup is huge. Luke Scott —another huge piece— was also out with an injury for three games last week. The offense still hasn’t been healthy yet this season, which is why I think it will only get better.
Still, the Rays do have some obvious weaknesses in the lineup, mainly the bottom of the order. Elliot Johnson, Reid Brignac, Sean Rodriguez and Jose Lobaton are some names that are a bit of a concern.
It’s safe to say the Rays won’t have the best lineup—or overall offense—in their division when comparing them to the stacked rosters of Boston and New York. They likely won’t have to match their rivals’ big bats, though, with such stellar starting pitching and defense as dominant as they have.
Still, the Rays are going to need to come through for them when needed, just like it did last year in their memorable Game 162. The Rays can expect that from their talented young roster this year, as they definitely have all the ingredients for a functional offense.
What We’ve Learned from the First Week of Rays Baseball
Looking back at the first week of baseball, the Rays have to be satisfied with where they stand. They’ve had a very good start to the season, going 4-2 including a sweep of their division rivals the New York Yankees. It’s nice to see a good start to the Rays’ season this year, after a horrendous start in 2011 when the Rays lost all of their first six games. What’s most impressive about the Rays’ first week is that they’ve been able to beat strong teams, despite having numerous injuries. B.J. Upton has been on the DL since the season began, while Luke Scott has missed the whole Detroit series with a hamstring issue. The Rays have also been without their closer Kyle Farnsworth, who’s on the DL as well. Even with three key injuries, the Rays have proven they can contend.
The Rays’ Offseason Acquisition are Paying Off
The Rays picked up Luke Scott and Carlos Pena this winter to replace Johnny Damon and Casey Kotchman, and so far it’s paying dividends. Although Scott is now hurt, both sluggers have had great starts to the 2012 season and have made immediate impacts in the lineup. Fernando Rodney has also proven to be a smart addition to the roster, as he has excelled so far in the closer role for the Rays. Jose Molina hasn’t exactly got it going with the bat yet—although he is starting to hit a little better—but still bolsters the Rays’ defense behind the plate. Jeff Keppinger is one more offseason acquisition that has paid off, as he’s had some big hits during Opening Week.
When Healthy, the Rays’ Offense May Be Better Than We Thought
The Rays’ offense has probably been the biggest surprise so far this season. It’s still very early, but the Rays have hit pretty well considering the key injuries in their lineup. The meat of the order has got the job done, producing most of the team’s runs thus far. Evan Longoria is red hot with the bat, putting up a line of .476/.577/.762 with a home run and four RBI. Carlos Pena is on fire as well, leading the team in RBI and homers (8 RBI and 3 HR) while hitting .429/.556/.905. Matt Joyce has also knocked in four runs himself. Luke Scott—who only played three out of the six games—is 3-6 with three RBI to start the season. Scott has proven that he’s an impact player in the middle of the lineup, which is why the Rays need him back as soon as possible. With the addition of Luke Scott and Carlos Pena, who have both had great starts to the season, the Rays offense is more potent than it was in 2011. With the return of B.J. Upton in the lineup, the Rays could be a serious contender to win the AL East. Still, there are some clear weaknesses in the lineup, mainly the bottom of the order. Both Sean Rodriguez and Reid Brignac are not getting the job done offensively at the shortstop position. Rodriguez has hit .067/.176./.067 without an RBI to start the season, while Brignac has hit.100/.182/.100 without an RBI as well. Elliot Johnson—who backs up both of them at short—hasn’t had a good start either.
Fernando Rodney Could Become the Rays’ Closer this Season
Fernando Rodney has been absolutely perfect in his 2.2 innings pitched so far this season. With Kyle Farnsworth out with an injury, Rodney has stepped up with three saves without allowing a baserunner yet this season. Rodney has exceeded expectations, and has already established himself as the team’s closer during Farnsworth’s stay on DL. It’s a question how effective Farnsworth will be when he returns, as he’s been experiencing elbow soreness since last season. I would be surprised to see him immediately jump back into the closer role whenever he returns to the ‘pen, which is why I think Rodney will be the team’s true closer this year.
Injuries are Becoming a Nuisance
The Rays have been able to win with big injuries, but it will be hard to win in October with all the tough American League competition. As I said before, the Rays need both Luke Scott and B.J. Upton healthy in their lineup, and a healthy Kyle Farnsworth would also be a big help to the bullpen. On the positive side of things, Scott could return to the lineup at some point during the Rays’ weekend series at Fenway, while Upton should return to the lineup around April 20th. Unfortunately, Upton, Scott and Farnsworth are not the only hurt players on the roster. Sam Fuld will miss most of the season with a wrist injury, and backup catcher Jose Lobaton is now dealing with shoulder soreness. Hopefully, these are just some early-season woes, but a handful of injuries after just one week of baseball is starting to become a pain for the Rays.
Have the Rays Been Too Hesitant to Trade a Starter?
Ever since the offseason began, there has been a big discussion surrounding the Rays on whether they would trade their surplus of pitching for a bat. The Rays have been looking to trade a starter for a while now, but apparently haven’t found a deal.
During the winter, the Rays really had three roster holes they needed to fill; catcher, first base and DH. Somewhat surprisingly, they turned to the free agent market for their needs. The Rays snagged veteran backstop Jose Molina, signed left-handed slugger Luke Scott to be their DH and brought back first baseman Carlos Pena.
The front office got the job done, but were there better options on the trade market?
The fact is that the Rays have eight legitimate starters for 2012, and probably more in 2013. James Shields, David Price, Jeremy Hellickson, Matt Moore, Jeff Niemann, Wade Davis, Alex Torres and Alex Cobb could all make an Opening Day MLB rotation on most other teams, while prospect Chris Archer will definitely be in that mix soon. The Rays offense is weaker than their outstanding starting pitching, so it would make a lot of sense to trade at least one starter for a hitter when you have three ‘extra’ starters.
The Rays clearly possess the necessary pieces in order to construct a deal, but who could they have traded for during the offseason. Three names immediately come to mind: first baseman/outfielder Yonder Alonso, first baseman Anthony Rizzo and catcher Yasmani Grandal. The two best prospect first basemen in all of baseball and a top prospect catcher were all traded this winter on deals the Rays could of very easily made.
In the deal that sent Yonder Alonso and Yasmani Grandal to the Padres, San Diego only gave up their No.1 starter (Mat Latos) in exchange for both of them and two more arms (Edinson Volquez and Brad Boxberger) from Cincinnati. With the starting pitching the Rays have, there were plenty of ways the Rays could have traded for both Alonso and Grandal if the Reds were looking for just one good arm to add to their rotation.
As for Anthony Rizzo, he was traded to the Cubs in exchange for minor league pitcher Andrew Cashner. Looking at who Chicago gave away for Rizzo, there’s absolutely no way that Jeff Niemann, Wade Davis, Chris Archer, Alex Cobb, or Alex Torres could not bring this future star first-baseman to Tampa Bay.
This trio’s big bats seem like they would have been a perfect addition to the Rays’ roster, but how would they actually fit on the team? If Luke Scott and Carlos Pena were never signed, we can assume that Alonso and Rizzo would be able to play DH and first base for the 2012 season. With Rizzo being the better defensive first baseman, he would likely man first while Alonso would be the DH.
As for Yasmani Grandal, he would be the backup catcher behind Molina and would get a significant amount of playing time. Looking at the Rays’ catching situation behind Molina, they probably wish they had him now.
The Rays would obviously have to choose either the Rizzo/Alonso combination or the Pena/Scott combination (or possibly a mixture), so which would be the better decision? There are plus sides and negative sides to both decisions. With the Scott/Pena combo (which is having a great start to the season by the way) the Rays have now, there is a bit of a long-term concern. Pena will be a free agent after the 2012 season, and Scott will be a free agent in 2013.
If the Rays signed both Alonso and Rizzo to long-term deals, they would have better security at the DH and first base positions. We know how Andrew Friedman loves to lock up young talented players long-term, which is the main reason why I think this would have been a good deal for the Rays. However, I believe that the Rays’ offense may be a bit better short-term with Scott and Pena in the roster.
It’s too early in the season to say anything for sure, but Scott and Pena have much more experience and have proven what they can do at the big league level. The short-term aspect is why I think the Rays chose Scott and Pena. They’ve made it very clear they’re going for it all this season.
What I find the most surprising in the Rays’ search to trade a starter is that they still haven’t made a deal to bring in a catcher to backup Molina. Not surprisingly, the Rays are still searching for a backup catcher. According to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe, Tampa has been pushing to acquire Oakland’s Kurt Suzuki, but Billy Beane isn’t very interested in Jeff Niemann or Wade Davis.
The Rays will most likely sign somebody eventually, but it may not be via trade. Ivan Rodriguez is one free agent catcher that the Rays pursue. If the Rays don’t decide to turn to free agency for their catching needs, who could they trade for?
Ryan Hanigan and Travis D’Arnaud could be two future possibilities. Hanigan—who the Rays have already discussed acquiring—has a questionable future in Cincinnati because of the emergence of top prospect catcher Devin Mesoraco. D’Arnaud—who’s also a top prospect catcher—may not have a future in Toronto because J.P Arencibia, who has established himself as the team’s starting catcher there. The Blue Jays have already discussed trading him, which is why I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Rays go after him.
The Rays have waited to find the right deal to trade some of their young pitching talent, but I think they’ll find some better opportunities as the trade deadline nears. It’s still too early in the season to conclude that the Rays have been over-hesitant to trade away their pitching surplus. What matters is what the front office decides to do in the future, and I think we’ll see the trade many have been anticipating once the deadline arrives.
Rays Update: Opening Day Roster Set
The Rays 25-man Opening Day roster is officially set for today’s game. Josh Lueke has been called up to replace Kyle Farnsworth, who joins B.J. Upton, Sam Fuld and Robinson Chirinos on the DL.
Pitchers (12):
RH Burke Badenhop
RH Wade Davis
RH Jeremy Hellickson
LH J.P. Howell
RH Josh Lueke
LH Jake McGee
LH Matt Moore
RH Jeff Niemann
RH Joel Peralta
LH David Price
RH Fernando Rodney
RH James Shields
Catchers (2):
Jose Lobaton
Jose Molina
Infielders (7):
Reid Brignac
Elliot Johnson
Jeff Keppinger
Evan Longoria
Carlos Peña
Sean Rodriguez
Luke Scott
Outfielders (4):
Desmond Jennings
Matt Joyce
Stephen Vogt
Ben Zobrist
The latest Rays news and notes:
- The Rays claimed left-handed reliever John Gaub off waivers yesterday, replacing Matt Bush’s spot on the 40-man roster. Gaub, who went 4-4 with a 3.42 ERA and 7 saves for Triple-A Iowa last season, won’t start the season on the 25-man roster.
- We know how Joe Maddon loves to platoon, be he still surprised most of us yesterday when he set the lineup for today’s game. Elliot Johnson and Jeff Keppinger will start, while Luke Scott is left out of the lineup. With southpaw C.C. Sabathia starting, we see a lineup with only two lefties today (Matt Joyce and Carlos Pena). Keppinger, who has absolutely no power but has good number against Sabathia, will bat in the cleanup spot. Elliot Johnson also has pretty good numbers against C.C., which is why he’s batting in the sixth hole. It’s still a little bit of a head-scratcher, but we’ll see how Maddon’s experiment works this afternoon. Here’s the full lineup below:
- Desmond Jennings, CF
- Ben Zobrist, RF
- Evan Longoria, 3B
- Jeff Keppinger, DH
- Sean Rodriguez, SS
- Elliot Johnson, 2B
- Carlos Pena, 1B
- Jose Molina, C
- Matt Joyce, LF
- Another season of Meet the Rays is underway at TampaBay.com. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times interviews the Rays players one by one. Click here for a trailer.
- Fifty ESPN MLB experts made their preseason predictions on Wednesday, and it seems like they’re giving the Rays plenty of respect. Here’s a breakdown of it over at RaysIndex.com.
- MLB.com’s Jim Hawkins writes an interesting piece on Stephen Vogt’s ‘scenic route’ to the Major Leagues.
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